GS-I: Heritage, History, Geography
The Indian monsoon system
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A seasonal monsoon forecast is a probability, not a date, because the system is a planetary land-sea thermal contrast modulated by remote ocean states such as ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Intense summer heating over northwest India draws the inter-tropical convergence zone north, reversing the pressure gradient and pulling moist southwesterlies across the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Elevated heating of the Tibetan Plateau and the resulting tropical easterly jet sustain the circulation; the cross-equatorial Somali jet feeds it. Retreat brings the northeast monsoon, the main rainy season for southeastern India.